ANZ’s proxy measure for New Zealand economic growth, the Truckometer is a measure of traffic flows

The ‘heavy’ traffic index comes in at -4.2% m/m

  • previous +2.9%, revised from +1.1%
  • For the y/y result, comes in at +6.3%

‘Light’ traffic index -1.7% m/m

  • prior +1.3%
  • y/y is above 6% still
  • ANZ comments on the light index, saying it is giving a mildly softer signal on growth in mid-2018

More from ANZ on the results – remark from their ‘key points’:

  • Despite the December fall, the indexes are providing a positive signal for
    GDP growth in Q4, due to earlier strength. However, the Light Traffic
    Index is giving a mildly softer signal for growth in mid-2018.

More – and not a bad summary of what to watch in the year ahead for NZ:

  • Political uncertainty,
  • a cooling housing market,
  • tighter credit availability
  • and transitioning growth drivers

could cause a growth
hiccup in the near term, but the still-strong upward
trend in the Light Traffic index (despite the small dip)
suggests this economy still has plenty of momentum.

ps. For those who have been waiting, Mike is back from holidays and keen to get back to truckin’!

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