Based on Reuters poll of 40 economists between 10 – 16 January

  • 40% predicted BOJ will raise rates this year, but the majority projected it would remain the same in 2018
  • Some left future quarters blank, saying outlook depends on future BOJ governor (Kuroda’s term is due in April)
  • 13/36 respondents said Japan government could declare victory over deflation by end of 2018
  • Sees North Korea tensions and China’s economic outlook posing the biggest risks to Japan
Economists’ views on the Bank of Japan tends to be all over the place as they’re not a straight-arrow when it comes to monetary policy. Think back to October 2014 and January 2016.

The BOJ meets again next week on 22 – 23 January, with the decision and statement due on 23 January. No surprises are expected though, then again, they wouldn’t be called surprises if they are expected I guess.

“Three more months, should I pull another rabbit out of the hat one last time?”

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