More NZ inflation data previews (data due 24 January 2018 2145 GMT)

New Zealand Q4 CPI data is due early in Asia Thursday 

I posted previews here:

more now:


  • We expect annual headline CPI inflation to lift slightly, with the major positive influence being a 6% rise in petrol prices seen in the quarter. Beyond that, inflation is likely to remain fairly subdued, with housing costs the only area of clear upward pressure.
  • We expect a further modest lift in the measures of underlying inflation.

TD Securities:

  • The new lower weight for fuel (8.7% to 6.4%) lowered our Q4 CPI forecast from +0.4% to +0.3%/q. Food we already know fell -1.6%/q (and has a higher weight at 19.3%).
  • Housing is always robust, and fuel boosts Private transport by +3.5%/q. Expect a seasonal jump in airfares (Public transport +7.4%/q) and otherwise, health and education are neutral for the Dec quarter.
  • We find ourselves at the dovish end of the market spectrum, but this is no way detracts from our view that the process-paralyzed RBNZ is increasingly behind the curve.


  • We estimate that consumer prices rose by 0.4% in the December quarter, led by higher fuel prices and other transport costs. This would keep the annual inflation rate at 1.9%, very near the 2% midpoint of the Reserve Bank’s target range.
  • Excluding the volatile food and fuel categories, we expect annual inflation to remain at a more modest 1.6%.
  • Our forecast is slightly higher than the Reserve Bank’s pick of 0.3% for the quarter, although the difference is in the more persistent non-tradable categories where an upside surprise would be more significant.
  • The December quarter release will incorporate Stat NZ’s Three – yearly reweighting of the basket of goods and services that make up the CPI. However, the new weights have had very little impact on our inflation forecast.

(bolding mine)

Source link

Articles You May Like

🔴 Watch Day Trading Live – September 15, NYSE & NASDAQ Stocks (Live Streaming)
Forex Trading for beginners – EXPLAINED – Step by step
SCALPING 5 Menit PROFIT $183 – Tehnik Simple-Memamfaatkan Area MA 50
USDJPY continues its fall lower. Range for the day is larger than the range from last week’s trading.
How to Improve Your Trading Strategy for Higher Forex & Stocks Profits

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *