Technical Analysis


Durable goods are good. GDP not as good.

The USDJPY is trading mid-range for the day. The durable goods data was better than expected on the headline and the revision. The 4Q GDP was not as good as the expectations, but inventories subtracted -0.67% and trade was also a big drag (with the lower dollar you wonder about that).

Technically, the low yesterday fell below a floor area between 108.599-108.82 (see red circles) but rebounded on the more bullish dollar talk from Trump. 

Today, the low reached just above that key support area at 108.90. The high – reached in the early Asia-Pacific trading – extended to 109.76.  

The 50% of the move down from the high this week (see hourly chart below) comes in at 109.856 and the 100 hour MA is currently at 109.814.   That area (109.81-856) will be key resistance on the topside today.  Also in that area (not shown) is the 100 week MA at 109.85. That increases the levels importance going forward.  

The buyers are trying to still make a play. They are trying to put a stake in the ground against what is a key swing support area below. However, that is step one. Step 2 is to continue the “try” by getting above the next targets. The longs/buyers will want to see that area around the 109.81-85 busted to prove their case. 



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