Technical Analysis


100 hour MA at 0.8067. 200 hour MA at 0.80306

The AUDUSD is lower on the day. Most of the decline occurred in the first few hours of trading in the Asian session. over the London and NY sessions, the price traded up and down, with a high or 0.8105 and a low of 0.8073.

The consolidation has allowed the upward 100 hour MA to get closer to the price. That MA (blue line in the chart above) comes in at 0.80675. The current price is at 0.80937.  If the price is going lower, that MA needs to be broken in the new trading day.

Is a break of the 100 hour MA good enough for the sellers?

I would expect a break should solicit more selling, but the 200 hour MA became evenmore important last week as a result of the support that came in against that MA level. 

Looking at that MA in the chart above (green line), the price tested the 200 hour MA line three separate times, and each time, bounced.  Moreover back on January 12, the price also bounced against that MA level.   

Four tests and four bounces. That is a trend that cannot be ignored.

So if the 100 hour MA is broken in the new trading day, that should be bearish. I would expect more selling. However, understand that a break of the 200 hour MA will be eyed for confirmation and further downside momentum.  



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