Technical Analysis


Sellers have the next push to make for more downside

The EURCHF moved up to the 1.2000 over the last few weeks. That level was the peg level for the SNB back from 2011 to early 2015 when the SNB pulled the rug and the price plummeted.

 

It took until April 20, 2018 to touch the level again, but the high could only reach 1.20047.  

Since then, the price has moved up and down sideways until yesterday when the buyer gave up and the price broke lower (see chart above).  Some catalysts for the break was 

  • The price could not get above (much above) the topside trend line on the 4-hour chart above.  
  • The price could not sustain the momentum above the 100 bar MA (blue line) 
  • The price fell below the swing low from the week of April 24 at 1.19243.  

The buyers gave up. 

The price tumbled but stalled right around the 38.2% at 1.18693 and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (green line in the chart above).  The low came in at 1.1865. 

The price currently trades at 1.1883. For the sellers the price has to get below the 1.1865-69 area. Get below and the downside opens up. 

The problem is there should be buyers against support (including profit takers). Why? Risk can be defined and limited.  So we can go either way off the key support. 

What would spoil the bearish party for shorts that want to see more downside?  Putting it another way, what would the buyers want to see on a move higher to give them more confidence the corrective low is in place?

Looking at the 5-minute chart, the price correction stalled near the 38.2% of the move down from the day’s high (at 1.19008).  The rotation lower took the price below the 100 bar MA (blue line in the chart below). The 200 bar MA is higher at 1.18979. A move above those MA, starts to muddy the water for the sellers. If the swing high at 1.1904 is broken, that water gets even more muddy for the sellers.  

The best scenario for the short is stay below/around the 100 bar MA at 1.1887. If broken and the falling 200 bar MA stalls, it still is bearish.  Above those levels, and I start to be more and more concerned. 



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