Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics, is ranked as Bloomberg’s most accurate yuan forecaster for the last two quarters
And he is ending his bullish view on the Chinese yuan since 2016, forecasting that USD/CNY is to rise to 6.40 by year-end as trade war risks between US and China mount.
“Having been bullish for the past two years, I now see the potential for a lot more uncertainty. Moving away from free trade and raising tariffs could hurt the growth of both China and the US. So it’s difficult to see a much weaker yuan, but it’s also difficult to see a much stronger yuan”, Schenker says.
He adds that China is not likely to weaken the yuan or sell US Treasuries any time soon, and he believes that the two nations will eventually resolve said conflicts through negotiations.