Technical Analysis

Above the 50% midpoint.

The USDJPY story is not much different from the longer term perspective.

The price is above the 100 day MA at 108.51 and below the 200 day MA at 110.167.

Yesterday, the price moved higher and in the process is above the 50% of the move down from the November 2017 high to the March 2018 low.  

Drilling to the hourly, the price yesterday broke out of the consolidation area and the 100 and 200 hour MAs that stalled the pair over the previous 3 or so trading days (see red box in the chart below and blue and green lines). That break was enough to turn the sellers to buyers. The price moved higher.

The problem is the last 19-20 hours, the price has been stuck in an up and down trading range.  

So buyers are trying. Buyers wrestled control and the break buyers were rewarded with higher prices.  The not so great for the buyers is that the price has stalled.

What next?

The risk, as I see it can be at 109.53 or on a break below the 200 hour MA at 109.35 (and moving higher).   If the price goes back below those levels, the waters start getting more and more muddy.

It is easy to give up on a move when the price spikes and goes no where. 

As a result, it is time for the buyers to show it want to keep control and push the price toward the high from last week at 110.028 and then the 200 day MA at 110.167.

BOJ Summary of Opinions will be released at the top of the hour.

At the last meeting:

  • GDP 2018 was revised to 1.6% from 1.4%
  • GDP 2019 was revised to 0.8% from 0.7%
  • 2020 GDP was set at 0.8%

For core CPI

  • 2018 1.4% (unchanged)
  • 2019 1.8%
  • 2020 forecast 1.8%

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