Technical Analysis

Pair retraces CPI gains and moves back higher

Are the buyers going to make another push to the 200 hour MA?

The price of the EURUSD had not traded above the 100 and 200 hour MAs since April 19th.  That trend move took the price from about 1.2360 area (where the MAs were at on April 19th) to a low yesterday at 1.18218.

Today, the price moved above a trend line on the CPI news, and raced above the 100 hour MA (currently at 1.1895 – see blue line in the chart above).  The run higher stalled at 1.1946 – just ahead of the 200 hour MA. That MA comes in at 1.19514 currently.   The price decline frustrated the buyers by retracing the CPI move AND moving back below the 100 hour MA (at 1.18954).  UGH!

However, the current hourly bar has moved back above the 100 hour MA. Is the 2nd break the charm? We trade at 1.1914. 

I have to go with the buyers with risk on a move back below the 100 hour MA.  It’s simply a corrective trade against the MA level. I don’t know if the 200 hour MA will be busted. but if it can build and go through that level, then there can be more upside potential. 

The time spent below the 100 hour MA (since April 19th), and being above it now, has my interest.  But the price has to stay above that 100 hour MA.  If it fails, I fail too (with a small loss). 

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