Further comments by RBNZ’s governor Adrian Orr
- Exchange rate has followed terms of trade
- Realisation that central bank is to retain policy stance is filtering through to markets and that is pushing NZD lower
- Core inflation has been slow to respond to low rates
- Core inflation is a bit below where the central bank would like it to be
- In no rush to move rate in either direction
- Seems that “our message on rates is getting through”
Maintaining policy stance is one thing, but I believe the statement earlier (which opens up the possibility of a rate cut) is providing the market with a fresh rethink of the RBNZ’s future move in rates.
I still believe the next move will be a rate hike, and the RBNZ’s message earlier is mainly just trying to tone down expectations for that – so as to not pressure themselves into a specific time to do so.