Central Banks

Just scanning through a few items, this from RBC on their Bank of England call after last week’s meeting

  • base rate was left unchanged by a 7-2 vote
  • so was the guidance
  • Limited and gradual rate hikes are still to be expected
  • three hikes over the three-year policy horizon judged as being fair, in the Bank’s view
  • However, much of this remains contingent on the incoming data, as the key assumption behind the Bank’s judgement is that the soft patch in Q1 is likely temporary. This puts the upcoming data releases in the spotlight. We now see a 25bp rate increase in August, but think that if the data does not bounce back, the BoE may have to pass the opportunity of a rate increase in 2018 altogether

Bolding mine … I reckon unless we get a pick up in the data soonish August may very well be doubtful. Check out this from UBS – their look at Economic Data Surprises for the UK:

Then again, the UK is not alone in data misses …. all showing recent misses:

  • Europe, Japan, Canada, New Zealand, Australia (though Australia picking up again)

US, on the other hand, generally beating

Source link

Articles You May Like

Next rate move likely to be up if economy improves as expected
10 year yield up, but needs one more push to get moving higher.
Highlights of Q&A from Fed Powell’s testimony
Trumps views on interest rates are well known
Soggy UK inflation report sinks cable to 10-month lows

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *