Central Banks

Just scanning through a few items, this from RBC on their Bank of England call after last week’s meeting

  • base rate was left unchanged by a 7-2 vote
  • so was the guidance
  • Limited and gradual rate hikes are still to be expected
  • three hikes over the three-year policy horizon judged as being fair, in the Bank’s view
  • However, much of this remains contingent on the incoming data, as the key assumption behind the Bank’s judgement is that the soft patch in Q1 is likely temporary. This puts the upcoming data releases in the spotlight. We now see a 25bp rate increase in August, but think that if the data does not bounce back, the BoE may have to pass the opportunity of a rate increase in 2018 altogether

Bolding mine … I reckon unless we get a pick up in the data soonish August may very well be doubtful. Check out this from UBS – their look at Economic Data Surprises for the UK:

Then again, the UK is not alone in data misses …. all showing recent misses:

  • Europe, Japan, Canada, New Zealand, Australia (though Australia picking up again)

US, on the other hand, generally beating

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