Except if the World Cup trumps all the news

Next week is one of those weeks where traders might expect a lot of volatility.

  • G7 fallout on Monday
  • US/N.Korean summit Monday US/Tuesday in Singapore
  • US CPI will be released on Tuesday
  • UK CPI on Wednesday
  • FOMC rate hike on Wednesday
  • Australia’s employment change on Thursday
  • UK Retail sales on Thrusday
  • ECB QE announcement on Thursday?  Maybe. 
  • Japan rate decision and press conference on Friday.

Wow. That’s a lot of market moving potential.
But there is another key event which may trump (no pun intended) all those events.
On Thursday, the 2018 World Cup will begin, and if the last tournament from Brazil in 2014  is any indications, expect the forex market to go into hibernation for the next 6 or so trading weeks

Now the matches don’t really get going in earnest until Friday (host Russia and Saudi Arabia kick things off on Thursday at 4 PM London time), but interest will be intense and itmay/should/will “distract traders” from position taking  (plus traders may just be taking holiday too).

The weekly chart below shows how the trading ranges compressed during the matches in 2014. The pip range for the EURUSD reached a low of 75 pips (that is for the week), and the high was 155 pips. That is not a lot of trading opportunity over a 5-day period.

In comparison the range this week is 188 pips. The low range for the 2018 weeks is 131 pips. The high is 324 pips. 

Next week has a lot that could move the markets. However, if the last World Cup is an indication of the volatility to come, traders may look to lighten up and take the next 6 or so weeks off while they get entrenched in what is happening on the pitch vs. what is happening in the markets.   

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