Technical Analysis

Key MA was tested last week and found sellers

The USDJPY has worked it’s way to new session highs. 

The low for the day NY session stalled ahead of the 100 hour MA (see earlier post). That MA comes in at 109.90 (blue line in the chart above). The low in the NY session reached 109.917.  Buyers leaned against the MA level (the 100 hour MA was resistance on Friday and was broken in the Asian session today), and the price has grinded higher.

The price is now approaching the key 200 day MA at 110.179. That MA was tested (broken) on Wednesday and Thursday last week, but momentum stalled on each attempt.  It represents a key level to get and stay above for the bulls.  Looking at the daily chart below, that MA was broken in May, and closed above for 6 straight days on the way to the May high at 111.39.  

Helping the bullish technical bias pver the last few weeks was the holding of the 100 day MA at the end of May.   That gave the buyers the boost they needed and they took the price higher.  

A move above the 200 day MA will look toward the early February swing high at 110.477. A move above that will look toward the trend line at 111.04 (and moving lower).  

It can also stall against the level.  A move back down will intensify, the battle between the 100 hour MA below and the 200 day MA above.  

Fundamentally, the US Fed will raise rates this week (88% chance). Japan is not thought to be close to tightening.  That should help to support the buyers, but the tightening is pretty much priced in (or largely expected).  

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