Trump/Kim meeting a success
The historic US/N. Korean summit seems to have gone off as expected. The markets are taking a cautious take. Stocks are mixed in Europe. US stocks are near unchanged levels. Currencies are also little changed in up and down markets. The EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD are all withi 4 pips in the morning snapshot of their closing levels from yesterday. The NZD is the strongest. The CAD is the weakest, but honestly any of the majors could take the leads (up or down) with a nudge.
US CPI will be released at the bottom of the hour with the expectation of 0.2% for the MoM headline and 0.2% for ex food and energy. YoY is expected to rise to 2.8% from 2.5% (a -1% from last May drops out this month), and ex food and energy is expected to rise to 2.2% from 2.1%.
The Fed starts their two day meeting where they are largely expected to raise rates by 0.25% to 1.75%-2.00%.
In the UK, the House of Commons will begin debate and vote on the House of Lords amendments on Brexit. The ‘Meaningful vote” debate will be a focus today. In the UK today the people employed continued to rise but the wage data slowed.
The ranges for the day are measured and contained (see chart below). The pair’s ranges are all below their 22 day averages suggesting a less volatile day so far.
In other markets:
- Spot gold is down -$3.62 to $1296
- WTI crude oil is near unchanged at $66.04
- Bitcoin is up $72 to $6833. The 100 hour MA has moved down to test the price. It is at $6847. A move above would take some of the pressure off the longs/buyers if it can get and stay above that MA
- The Dow is expected to open little changed. The S&P is little changed. Nasdaq is down -2
- Yields in the US are up about 1-2 bps. 2 year is up 1.6 bp. 5 year is up 2 bps. 10 year is up 1.6 bps. 30 year is up 1.2 bps. The US auctions 30 year bonds at 1 PM today.