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Sellers are on board though

The EURUSD is trading to new session lows. Draghi/ECB did not exude a whole lot of confidence despite their intention to start taper in September and finish the taper at the end of the year.   That is all contingent on the projections toward economic goals remains.  Also, the ECB expects to keep rates unchanged until the end of summer 2019.   

He sounded as if his heart was simply not into saying all was ok (i.e. the inflation forecasts are still below the targeted 2% level so how can he be?).

The EURUSD has move below the 

  • 100 and 200 hour MA, 
  • Below recent lows at 1.1724-32 (see yellow area)
  • Below the lows from Nov/Dec 2017 at 1.11712-17 and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour at 1.1713
  • Finally, the 50% has been broken at 1.16797 (that is the latest break)

Helping the selling is the US retail sales data today was solid and suggest yet another rise in the GDP estimates (does the US get 4% growth in the 2Q?).  

The EURUSD is next targeting the swing lows from June at 1.1652, 1.16394 and 1.16168.  The price is just a few pips away from 1.1652 now

Close risk is the 50% retracement at 1.16797 now.  

Big day down. Draghi’s lack of confidence is to blame and the market is believing in him. 



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