Via ING’s outlook for the week ahead, strong words on what is weighing on the AUD

While a soft Australian jobs release has dented the Australian dollar, the real source of menace remains US policy. 

  • On the monetary side, higher short-term US rates continue to weigh on high-beta commodity currencies, 
  • while on the trade side, the follow-through of US tariffs on Chinese imports is a particular blow for the trade-sensitive AUD. 
  • In a quiet week for global markets, we suspect the latter will be the prevailing narrative – and this doesn’t strike us a particularly conducive risk-taking backdrop. 

The June RBA minutes (Tuesday) – as well as Governor Philip Lowe’s participation at the ECB’s Sintra conference (Wednesday) – are likely to be non-events for the AUD. 

Look for the pair to remain contained in the 0.7400-0.7600 range in the absence of any further directional catalysts.

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