An updated commentary from Westpac on the Australian dollar, with a target for AUD/USD
- The Aussie has been one of the worst performers in the broad-based US dollar rally since the June FOMC and ECB meetings. It is now below our weekly fair value estimate for the first time this year.
- If US-China trade tensions remain the market focus in coming weeks, risks are to 0.72/0.73.
- But Australia’s key commodity prices have been broadly resilient, especially LNG and thermal coal, suggesting AUD downside should be contained multi-month.
- The RBA should also be optimistic on Australia’s growth outlook in its August statement.
- We look for 0.75 end-September
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