Westpac on AUD – now below weekly fair value. Risks and target for AUD/USD

An updated commentary from Westpac on the Australian dollar, with a target for AUD/USD

  • The Aussie has been one of the worst performers in the broad-based US dollar rally since the June FOMC and ECB meetings. It is now below our weekly fair value estimate for the first time this year. 
  • If US-China trade tensions remain the market focus in coming weeks, risks are to 0.72/0.73. 
  • But Australia’s key commodity prices have been broadly resilient, especially LNG and thermal coal, suggesting AUD downside should be contained multi-month. 
  • The RBA should also be optimistic on Australia’s growth outlook in its August statement. 
  • We look for 0.75 end-September 

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