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Forex news for trading on June 21

In other markets near the end of the trading day is showing:

  • Spot gold is trading near unchanged levels at $1267.52
  • WTI crude oil futures are $.12 or 0.18% at $65.82. OPEC’s tomorrow in Vienna although preliminary talks suggest there is dissension.
  • Bitcoin is traded in a narrow $105 trading range today and is down about $25 to $6725

The US major stock indices closed lower. The Dow has now closed down for 8 consecutive trading days. That is almost as bad as Argentina’s run in the World Cup (they lost 3-0 vs Croatia and are at the mercy of others to advance).  

  • S&P fell by -0.62%
  • NASDAQ fell by -0.88%
  • Dow fell by -0.80%

US yields were lower with the 5 and 10 year yields down over 4 bps on the day.

The snapshot of the major currencies near the end of the day shows, the GBP is the strongest.  The BOE kept rates unchanged but gained a dissenter on the tightening side (the vote is 6-3 now) and the markets are now putting an August hike at around 67% now. That is up from around 45% at the start of the week.  The USD was the weakest today.  

The weakness in the USD was attributed to a few catalysts:

  1. Philadelphia business outlook survey given much weaker at 19.9 versus 29.0 expected. The number was the lowest since November 2016 
  2. A Supreme Court decision that gave states the ability to collect sales tax from online businesses that don’t have a physical presence in the state
  3. Both 1 and 2 helped to push stocks and yields lower which pressured the dollar

For the EURUSD, the pair spent the 1st part of the day moving lower.  That move took the pair to the lowest level since July 20, 2017.  The problem with that is the pair only took out the low from May 2018 by 2 pips (1.1507 vs 1.1509).  The Philadelphia data goosed the price higher and the rally (lower dollar) took the pair to a resistance area at 1.1616-26, not once but twice.  However, the highs for the day at 1.1633 and 1.1628, could not keep the momentum going on each test/break, and the price is closing back toward 1.1600.  In the new day, the 1.1616-26 remains a key level to get and stay above for buyers.   On the downside, the 100 hour MA at 1.1585 is support.  

The USDJPY fell below the 100 and 200 hour MA at 110.29 area after the data and continued down to its support target in the 109.838 to 109.92 area.  In that area is a swing level (highs and lows from the past), the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and the 100 bar MA on the same 4-hour chart.   We bounce off that level twice (like the EURUSD at its high) and closed higher at 109.95.  In the new day, a move below will be more bearish.  Stay above and the pair may bounce and continue the ups and downs in this pair. 

As mentioned, the GBPUSD was already supported by the BOE before getting another push on the back of the US news today. The pair moved above swing lows and highs in the 1.3203-10 area and the 100 hour MA in the same area (at 1.3208 currently). Being above that level is more bullish and the price moved to a high at 1.3269.  The high stalled short of the 200 hour MA at 1.3276.   So we trade between the 100 hour MA below at 1.3208 and the 200 hour MA at 1.3276 into the new day and will see if the price 

 Wishing you all a great day, evening night. For those in the Far East, have a great weekend.

PS World Cup results:

  • Denmark and Australia played to a 1-1 tie
  • France beat Peru 1-0
  • Croatia beat Argentina 3-0

Tomorrow 

  • Brazil plays Costa Rica, 
  • Nigeria plays Iceland and 
  • Serbia plays Switzerland. 



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