Digital currency can’t hold a rally.
On Monday of this week, the price of bitcoin moved above the 100 and 200 hour MA. It was a step in the bullish direction. It was a momentum break.
However the highs from Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday were all in the same general area. Yesterday, the high was off those levels. All the while though, the price did remain above its rising 100 hour MA (blue line) and 200 hour MA (green line). In fact on Wednesday, those MA were tested and levels held (see chart above).
That should have been an invitation to take this thing higher and away. It did – a little – but it faded.
Well, today, the 100 and 200 hour MAs and trend line were broken (around $6,660 and $6,580 respectively). Once broken, the price did not look back.
We are currently trading above and below the June low at $6,135 (currently trade at $6,148, down -$568 on the day on Coinbase exchange). The low reached $6070. That is the lowest level since the February low at $5,873. That February low is also the 2018 low and the next target. Below that the $5511 is the November 2017 low (see daily chart below).
If you look back a year, the price on June 22, 2017 closed at $2,668. We are at $6,148 now. It doesn’t feel that great but the price is still up $3,480 or 130%. That sounds great.
However, the fall from the December high of $19,787 compared to $6,148 is not that great at all.
Right now, the price action and tools are bearish. On the daily the price is below the 100 and 200 day MAs and below (or close to) the last swing lows from June 2018 (we are below the April low).
On the hourly, the price is back below the 100 and 200 hour MAs.
For me to think the selling is over, it has to get and stay above the hourly MAs and build from there.
The other hope from the long side, is if the price can base ahead here at the earlier June low. If it can’t, the final hope is the 2018 low at $5873. If that is broken, ever buyer in 2018 is underwater. That would hurt.
Traders might then think about how even at $5800, it may be too high.
PS the low price for 2017 was at $734.