Technical Analysis


Not a smooth extension but buyers trying…

The EURUSD moved above the 100 hour MA yesterday (blue line). Earlier in the week, the pair failed on the first test.  

Today, the Asian session held above that level and pushed higher into the London morning session. 

The pair moved above the Tuesday high at 1.16438.  That started the extension of the narrow 134 pips trading range for the week (the low range for the year had been 132 pips).  We are now up to 168 pips which is respectable.  

The rise today also moved above the 200 hour MA (green line) at 1.16424. Admittedly, the price has been trading above and below the prior high at 1.16438 and the 200 hour MA at 1.16424.  So it has not been a smooth break.   However, we are back above those levels now. I have to lean a little in the buyers camp as a result, but just a little. 

The next target comes in at the 50% retracement at 1.16785. The 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart is at 1.1688.  I would expect that area to find sellers. 

Yes, we are above the 1.1642-438 area (prior high and 200 hour MA), but the extension has not been all that smooth.  Plus the 50% looms above. It is also Friday and there is more World Cup games up ahead.   The Friday dynamic can lead to choppy conditions as weekend flows might be an impact. The World Cup gains, can take the wind out of trading volatility.

There is the ongoing OPEC press conference, stocks and the Markit PM for Manufacturing and Services.   The Philly Bus. Outlook survey was weak yesterday and helped to weaken the dollar.  Longs will like to see that sentiment roll over into the national index today.  



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