Technical Analysis


Fall below 200 bar MA as momentum slowed a bit. Bears cautious on the tilt in bias. Still a strong week higher in the pair. 

The USDJPY has tilled a little lower technically. The trend had been for traders to lean against the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5-minute chart. That pattern was broken earlier in the day, and the 100 and 200 bar MA on the chart has shifted from support to resistance.  The weaker U of Miichigan sentiment index has the pair back toward the low for the day at 112.41 (the low just reached 112.439). Stay below the MAs keeps the sellers satisfied. Move back above and they may just give up on the idea. 

  

The “tilt” lower is just a small change from what has been a trend move higher this week. The low for the week was on Monday at 110.344. The high reached 112.80.  The fall to the 112.41 level is not a big deal in that big picture.  The price has only retraced to the 38.2% area of the move up from yesterday.  That is just a small part of the trend move higher.  

As a result, the sellers are happy below the shorter MAs from the 5-minute and the price has room to explore lower, but it is not a full force “sell the USDJPY”. It is a cautious call, but the bearish band is not yet playing loud.

Stocks are still mixed, trading above and below the 0 line for the indices.  The Nasdaq is up 4. The S&P is down -1 point. The Dow is up 16.5 points.  Banks are negative.  Earnings beat for Citi and JPM but revenues and loan growth are the concern.  

US yields are lower after the confidence news:

  • 2 year 2.582, down -0.4 bps
  • 10 year 2.834%, down -1.1 bps
  • 30 year 2.936%, down 1.0 bps

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