Technical Analysis


Fall from yesterday is fully reversed into a topside trend line

The USDCAD has moved sharply higher in trading today. The move reversed the sharp fall yesterday (and a little more), but stalled against a topside trend line at 1.3268.  Let’s face it, the price action is a bit skittish.  Sharp move higher. Sharp move lower. Sharp more higher again.  

Technically, the fall today did stall around the 50% retracement.  That low did fall below the 100 hour MA on that test (blue line) but not below the confirming 200 hour MA (green line).

What might give the longs some reason to fear (like yesterday)?

Drilling to the 5-minute chart, the correction off the high so far, has simply corrected a minimum of 38.2% of the move higher.  It also stalled right at the 100 bar MA on the 5-minute chart below (see blue line).  That is a “plain vanilla” correction – so far at least.  If the sellers are to scare some more buyers, breaking below the rising 100 bar MA and the 38.2% would be a start.  Until then, the buyers are still more in control (with resistance at the topside trend line on the hourly). 

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