Bullish above/Bearish below 0.6805 area
The NZD was the weakest currency yesterday and the NZDUSD tumbled below the low from July 13th. The momentum faded though and the pair started to correct.
Today, the USDs fall, has pushed the NZDUSD higher as well. The run higher has helped complete the two-day lap (price back up to the high from yesterday). That high at 0.6805, is also a swing level going back to July 6th. A move above is more bullish. A move below could be more bearish (or at least corrective).
The NZDUSD has been swinging back and forth over the last few weeks. It tries to go higher, and stalls. It tries to go lower and stalls.
The midpoint of the month’s trading range comes in at 0.6773. We are above that level now. The 100 and 200 hour MAs and a broken trend line come in at that area as well (see blue and green lines and the yellow area). That increases the areas importance. It is now key support.
If the price is to keep the bulls more in control (that is the big question), get and stay above the 0.6805. Alternatively, if there is a correction, stay above the yellow area at 0.6772-77. A move below, and the ups and downs continues for this pair.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, you can see the ups and downs in July. The pair is either consolidating after the run lower and is waiting for a break lower, or is bottoming for a corrective move higher. Hence the importance of looking at the hourly chart. It will help give clues to the bias, and from there it depends on if “the market” wants to take it higher or lower (or stay in the range).
On the daily, the 0.68159 is a swing level that if broken above would be more bullish. The 0.6850-58 area is also a level that if broken would also be an invitation for more upside.
On the downside a break of the recent swing lows is more bearish – before that the price would go below the yellow area on the hourly chart.