Central Banks

For the Reserve Bank of New Zealand September 2018 policy announcement;

And, via Westpac:

This now from ASB, in summary:

  • RBNZ’s outlook for interest rates remained identical to the August Monetary Policy Statement’s
  • We continue to expect the RBNZ will keep the OCR on hold, and eventually lift the OCR in early 2020

risks through to mid-2019 are tilted to a lower OCR due to low levels of business confidence

  • RBNZ showed a slightly greater degree of caution about the path forward:
  • continued wariness over the domestic growth outlook 
  • also noting trade tensions more prominently

ASB outlook:

  • We remain of the view that inflation pressures will pick up sooner than what the RBNZ has been forecasting to date
  • we expect a greater degree of wage inflation and subsequent flow-through to consumer prices
  • we expect that eventual OCR increases will occur sooner than the late-2020 indication from the RBNZ
  • near-term risks are still skewed towards a lower OCR, primarily if growth does not live up to RBNZ expectations


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