Technical Analysis

Tests 200 bar MA on 4-hour chart.

The speech by Boris Johnson is over. He did not tip the political boat over.  He is not in agreement with the Chequers plan still, but did express “some” support for “May’s original plan” and said we should get behind her on that plan.

Technically, looking at the 4-hour chart above, the price fall today has taken the price to a lower trend line at 1.2944. The low price reached 1.2941, just below that level.  That fall took the price below the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and the 50% of the move up from the August 2018 low at 1.2986 and 1.29795 respectively. The correction off the trend line has seen the price move back up to test those levels.  The price rise stalled.

So the battle is on with the trend line support at the trend line at 1.2944, with the 50% and 200 bar MA as resistance above at 1.29795-86.  We currently trade at 1.2971 with traders leaning on tests of each area and being patient for the next push (above or below – look for the break). 

Drilling to the 5-minute chart, the pair has been trending lower today, with the bounce off the low, rising to test the 100 bar MA on that chart as well (blue line currently at 1.29844).  That MA will also be eyed for clues to a bias change.  A move above would look toward the day’s midpoint at 1.2994, and then the falling 200 bar MA (green line currently at 1.30117). Stay below keeps the sellers in control. 


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