Technical Analysis


Trying to decide up or down

The EURJPY is moving back down as stocks chop up and down. The Nasdaq tested the 200 day MA and stalled just ahead of it at the highs.  

The stories from the Trump administration are confusing. One minute, the story is Trump and Xi will meet in November.  Kudlow gets on CNBC and walks back that idea.  

Trump yesterday and earlier today, calls the Fed crazy/”loco”. Kudlow walks that idea back.  

What is the story? That is not helping. 

The EURJPY can be a barometer for the stock market. I can’t say that it is always reactionary. If you look at the last three days, the price is more up and down, but has stayed near the lows (and has pockets of reactionary moments). 

Technically, the ups and downs has moved the 100 hour MA down to test the price (blue line at 130.098 currently). The high today did crack above – briefly – but has moved back down.   That level comes in at 130.098.

At the lows today, the price did take a look below the 100 day MA at 129.344 (lower blue line in the chart above). The low reached 129.204 during the early Asian lows, but could not sustain the selling. The London low stalled ahead of that key MA line.  Traders leaned and the price rebounded. 

In between is a swing level that has a number of highs and low over the last 3 days (see yellow area). That area has stalled the fall in the early NY hours (at 129.73-80) – including the current dip lower.  

What does it all say?

Ups and downs with the 100 hour MA above and the 100 day MA below. In between, a swing area for intermediate bias.   At some point there will be a break and run, but right now, traders are trading the levels. 

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