Technical Analysis

What technical levels are in play through the release

The 3Q CPI in NZ will be released in the new trading day 5:45 PM ET. The expectation is for 0.7% increase (vs 0.4% prior) and 1.7%  (up from 1.5%).  That is still below targeted inflation but a step toward the 2% target again.

The price action has been moving higher in trading today, but looking at the 4-hour chart, the price rise today did find sellers near the 100 bar MA at 0.65561. That level, the 50% retracement at 0.65611 and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.65711 area all in play on more upside momentum.  I would expect, however, that sellers use the levels to lean against on tests, with stops on a break above.  The 0.6571 should be a touch nut to crack. 

On a move lower, the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the September high at  0.65287 will be eyed for more bearish clues. Move below and there should be more downside momentum with the lower trend line at 0.6513 the next target.  

Much will depend on the number, but the levels are defined.

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