The FOMC minutes are among the most-overrated releases out there. Generally the trade is to fade any significant move because what’s said in the minutes is always far more nuanced than the headlines.
For today, Morgan Stanley thinks the kneejerk reaction will be for a higher US dollar.
“The Fed minutes due today may push USD initially higher, but central bank hawkishness will not bode well for risk appetite. USD and risk are now positively correlated, suggesting selling USD rallies today,” they write in a note.
In the August 22 minutes, the dollar initially slid but rallied broadly the following day and into the start of September.
Here are two more quick previews from Nomura and Barclays.