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A couple of previews of employment data coming up from the UK

Once that’s out of the way we can get back to Brexit headline ping pong!

Barclays:

  • The claimant count continues to rise slowly, however, this is unlikely to feed into a higher unemployment rate just yet, as recruitment consultants continue to report staff shortages. 
  • However, the risks are tilted to the upside as the past three months have seen an unusual increase in reported inactivity. Wage growth is expected to remain strong with core at 3.1%y/y and headline at 2.9% y/y. 

Nomura says though …

  • Wage growth will once again be the statistics to watch in this report. Our preferred measures relates to private sector regular pay on 3-, 4-, 5- and 6-month annualised bases. They currently range from around 3.5% to 4.5% (August), and we think are likely to remain in that vicinity in this report (September).
  •  Elsewhere, watch employment growth, which has slowed to a standstill in recent months.



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