MUFG on the timeline for selling the US dollar
MUFG Research discusses the current conditions of the FX market and notes that fundamental-based trades are not prone to perform in the current market environment.
“We are sceptical though of playing the FX markets from a relative fundamental stance just yet.
Fundamentals will of course come more into play in time but only after
the positioning stress is relieved and the extreme illiquidity problems
subside. When that does happen and we may be weeks or even longer from
that the dollar will certainly revert the gains made since the
escalation of this crisis,” MUFG notes.
“From the turning point in the Global Financial Crisis (March
2009), the US dollar (DXY) reversed nearly all the crisis-fuelled USD
demand in about 8 months,“MUFG adds.
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