Technical Analysis


AUD/USD trades around 0.6420-30 levels after the drop earlier in the day

The pair got a bit of a shove lower earlier in the after the a historic Australian jobs report, as market participants looked past the lower-than-expected unemployment rate (largely due to a drop in the participation rate) and focused on the other details instead.

Sellers stay in near-term control of the pair as they keep price under the key hourly moving averages, but buyers are finding some support from the 76.4 retracement level @ 0.6422 so far on the day.

The risk-off mood in the market also isn’t helping the aussie, thus keeping the pair pressured lower around 0.6420-30 levels for the most part during the session.

For buyers, there is much work to be done as they need to move back towards a test of the 200-hour MA (blue line) to really get any momentum going again.

As for sellers, there is a bit of a pause now but the key will be to try and chase a move back under the support region at 0.6373-79 to open up a path back towards the 21 April low @ 0.6254 next.

Currently, the risk momentum is also favouring sellers as we see stocks pressured and bond yields also weighed lower. As such, risk will be the decisive factor in driving momentum in the pair as we look towards the weekend.

We’ll get another round of US weekly jobless claims later but as per previous reaction, it shouldn’t do much to shift the dial in the market.

Instead, perhaps the technical levels will be of more importance today. The S&P 500 is hanging on barely above the 2,800 level and a firm drop under that could trigger another wave of risk aversion in the session ahead.

So, the onus now falls on dip buyers to try and stop that from happening.

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