Technical Analysis


10 year yiled up about 9 bps on the day

The US 10 year yield has arisen about 9 basis points to 0.7322%. It’s high yield reached 0.7421%. 

Looking at the daily chart below, the yield has been between 0.539% and 0.782% since March 30 with a number of up and down moves. Last Friday, the yields moved to a low of 0.5879% before reversing higher and closing near the high yield for the day. Today with stocks moving higher and hopes for a successful reopening of the US/global economies, there is a flow out of treasuries and into stocks.

Nevertheless the pair remains within the trading boundary. It will take a move in the yield above the 0.7820% to increase the bullish bias a bit. A downward sloping trendline cuts across at 0.840%. That would be a target on a break higher. Above that, and traders will be looking toward its 38.2% retracement of the move down from the December 2019 high to the March low that comes in at 0.9389%.

Back in March, the yield corrected all the way up to 1.2727% on March 19 before tumbling back lower. However the more recent low yields in April could not get down to the March low at 0.3137%. 

Is that positive for yields?

Get above 0.782% level and stay above will be step number 1.

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