Latest data released by Eurostat – 6 July 2020

  • Prior -11.7%; revised to -12.1%
  • Retail sales -5.1% vs -6.5% y/y expected
  • Prior -19.6%

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Retail sales activity rebounded strongly in the euro area in May, as lockdown restrictions were eased in most countries. But relative to a year ago, retail sales is still seen lower by a little over 5% – I would argue that the bounce has a lot to do with pent-up demand.

The real challenge will be to see how retail sales and consumption activity fare in Q3, once the new normal conditions start to become a base for the economy.

That will be more telling about how actual economic conditions are faring in the region and how consumer demand is holding up as we move on from the crisis in general.

EUR/USD continues to stay underpinned at around 1.1280-90 levels, but is keeping just under the high last week around 1.1300 for the time being.

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