Technical Analysis

RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged

the RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.25%. Focus will be on Gov. Lowe’s statement especially his reaction to the reintroduced lockdown measures in Melbourne. 


The price action today in the AUDUSD initially saw sellers leaning near its 200 hour moving average (green line currently at 0.71429).  The price did inch above that moving average line early in the Asian session but momentum could not be established.  There was a late Asian retest which once again found sellers. 

The London session saw the price March lower with the price moving below the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the July 14 low and down toward the 50% retracement at 0.70736 in the early New York session. The low for the day stalled at 0.70758. The last 6 or so hours has seen the price rebound back toward the swing area defined by swing lows and highs going back to July 21. That area comes between 0.71097 and 0.71242. Moving above would be more bullish staying below would be more bearish. 

On the topside, the 200 hour moving average remains a key target at 0.71426 followed by the 100 hour moving average at 0.71596. Off of the decision, should those 2 levels be broken the bias would be more to the upside.

On the downside, falling back below the 0.71097 level would have traders sign the 50% retracement at 0.70736 and the swing low from July 24 at 0.70634. Break below those levels opens the door for further downside momentum.

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