Technical Analysis


The MA line held support in trading today

The price action is limited as the US and Canada are on holiday (and that tends to influence trading activity globally).  The USDJPY range today is only 25 pips. The average over the last 22 trading days (about a calendar month) is 67 pips.  

So what can you garner from that inactivity?

Looking at the hourly chart above, although the price action is sideways and up and down and in a small range, the price DID stall at the lows just ahead of the rising 100 hour MA (at 106.13 at the days lows). That MA helped to stall the fall as traders leaned against the risk defining level (the low also was at 106.13 today). 

Putting it another way, the risk for buyers was a move below the MA.  Since the price could not and did not trade below, those buyers near 106.13 have so far reaped the reward from the stumble back to the upside.  The current price trades at 106.280

Moreover, the MA line as moved up and is moving higher. It is currently at 106.178. So should the price move below the line, at least the buyers have a small profit versus the entry level.  That is good news for those buyers on the low/for those buyers against the MA risk defining level.  

On the topside, the next target would be the high for the day at 106.38. Above that is the topside trend line currently at 106.447. The high from Friday reached 106.50 and the high from last week reach 106.546. All those levels are upside targets.

Could you buy here at 106.28? Well, risk is the 100 hour moving average. Stay above is more bullish. Move below is more bearish. That would be the trade from a risk defining technical perspective.

Although price action today is very limited in the USDJPY, the technicals helped to define support against its 100 hour MA (and also trend line).   Stay above each is more bullish.  Move below and the technical picture will tilt more to the downside. 

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