Technical Analysis


100 hour moving average above is resistance for the AUDUSD

The reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged but the tilt toward potential for further easing down the road. That helped to push the AUDUSD lower.  However, it is also off the lows on the day.

Technically, the high price today stalled right at the high from last week at 0.72088. That was also right at the 50% retracement of the trading range since September 1. Sellers leaned against that level and push the price back below a upward sloping trendline and the 100 hour moving average after the RBA decision (blue line currently at 0.71706). 

The price – since breaking the 100 hour moving average – has been able to stay below that moving average level on corrective moves higher (there have been 4 bars that have gotten to within a few pips of the MA including the current bar).   

If the bias is to shift more to the upside, getting back above the 100 hour moving average would be the next hurdle.  Stay below, however (and so far that is the case), the sellers would hold the stronger hand technically for the day.  The next downside targets would include the swing lows from Friday’s trade between 0.7131 and 0.71392. Below that is the rising 200 hour moving average at 0.71210.

A break of the 100 hour moving average would look toward the 0.7191 area. Followed by the double top at 0.72088 (and 50% retracement)

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