Central Banks

Comments from the Fed Governor (and rumored Treasure Sec candidate)

  • Premature withdrawal of fiscal aid risks entrenching recessionary dynamics
  • US recovery highly uneven, highly uncertain
  • Q3 GDP has likely recovered more than half of its H1 decline
  • Financing conditions favorable for large businesses, tight for small businesses
  • Labor market improvement rapid but uneven, easiest gains behind us
  • US rates likely to stay below neutral for a period after liftoff
  • In the months ahead Fed to clarify how asset purchases to best work with forward guidance

She’s teeing up two huge factors in the stock market right now. The main one is the importance of stimulus as we continue to play the deal-or-no-deal game. The second is that big publicly-listed companies are tearing apart small mom-and-pop competition because the Fed is helping the big guys get ultra-cheap financing while the small businesses get turned away at the bank.

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