Technical Analysis


200 hour MA at 0.6627/38.2% retracement at 0.66294

The NZDUSD is moving lower and continuing to retrace the gains from the Tuesday low.  The high price from yesterday reached up to test swing highs and lows going back to September 17 (see red numbered circles). Sellers leaned against the area and stalled the rally. The backup (to the downside) into the close – helped by declining stocks in the US – started the corrective process. That has continued in the early Asian session.

Technically, the price is moving back toward its 38.2% retracement of the move up from Tuesday’s low. That comes in at 0.66294. Just below that is the 200 hour moving average currently at 0.6627. A break below each of those levels would tilt the bias even more to the downside as the pair moves back into the range seen over the last 16 or so trading days. A break below  the 100 hour MA at 0.66089 and the 50% at 0.66148 would add additional bearishness to the technical picture.  

As a reminder, the pair on Monday fell below the 100 day MA and a lower trend line. However, the fall could not be sustained, and the run higher yesterday took the pair away from the key moving average level.  The rising 100 day MA currently comes in at 0.6588. Keep that level in mind on further weakness.  

For now however, the pair is lower and the high did stall near a key swing area above yesterday, but the buyers are still in the game above the 200 hour MA/38.2% retracement.  Traders may look to lean against the area with stops below.  Risk is defined risk is limited.    If the level holds getting back above 0.6653 to 0.6657 would give dip buyers more confidence.

Key support being approached. Who will win?

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