A look at October in the S&P 500 The average gain for October in the S&P 500 over the past 20 years is 1.19%, making it the fourth-best month on the calendar. There’s a big caveat for 2020 though: Election years tend to be rough. 2016 -1.94% 2012 -1.98% 2008 -16.94% 2004 +1.4% 2000 -0.49%
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How the seasonals performed in September The yen was the best performer in September with the dollar close behind while sterling lagged. None of those things was part of a seasonal pattern. There is a slight bid to the dollar in the shorter-term but over the past 30 years it’s one of the weaker years
Weekly Commitments of Traders data for the week ending September 8, 2020: EUR long 198K vs 197K long last week. Longs increased by 1K GBP long 13K vs 6k long last week. Longs increased by 7K JPY long 22K vs 30K long last week. Longs decreased by 8K CHF long 12K vs 12K long last
We’re at the end of the month The preliminary output of this month-end fixing model point to USD selling against EUR and GBP at month end, according to data from Citi Research. “The preliminary estimate of month-end FX hedge rebalancing flows points to a net USD selling need on Monday, 31 August, Citi notes. “The relative outperformance of US
August is a tough time for the Australian dollar A kangaroo can jump 2 meters high but it always falls back to the ground. Since mid-August, the Australian dollar is easily the best-performing major currency. It’s also one I’ve been touting for awhile. A big reason for the rally is that Australia (and China) did
The USD is mixed As the North American session begins, the JPY is the strongest of the majors, the AUD is the weakest. The risk off flows continue as investors flee stocks (in particular the tech stocks). Intel reported after the close and despite a beat on the top and bottom line, the delay of
A snippet of commentary from Credit Suisse on the Australian dollar CS nominate as resistance 0.6957/77 0.7005 … through here “would see a renewed test of 0.7032/41 and 0.7063” break above here would see a large base established and add weight to the view of a broader change in trend to the upside, with resistance
A look at the seasonal patterns for May 2020: Welcome to May. Coronavirus is dominating everything as central banks and governments try to counter the massive demand shock with unprecedented amounts of spending. In April, somehow the seasonal patterns were a total success. The scoreboard is wiped clean again in the new month and I
Forex futures positioning data for the week ending April 14, 2020: EUR long 87K vs 80K long last week. Longs increased by 7k GBP long 3K vs 4K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1K JPY long 22K vs 22K long last week. Unchanged CHF long 5K vs 6K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1K AUD
Seasonals aren’t a good idea this month There are times when seasonals are a valuable part of the forex toolbox. This isn’t one of those times. News on the economy and coronavirus is going to overwhelm any seasonal tendencies. That said, April is generally one of the strongest months for patterns. Here are 4 of
Forex futures positioning data for the week ending February 25, 2020: EUR short 114K vs 92K short last week. Shorts increased by 23K GBP long 30K vs 29K long last week. Longs increased by 1K JPY short 56K vs 27K short last week. Shorts increased by 29k CHF long 1K vs 2K long last
HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment;
How did the January seasonal patterns perform? January was a month that featured a black swan with the coronavirus outbreak but it also followed the usual seasonal patterns almost perfectly. Let’s recap: 1) Looks for weakness in the S&P 500 I highlighted that the average decline in the S&P 500 is 0.49% in January but
FX option expiries for Friday January 17 at the 10am NY cut
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LON SDNY+11 NY -5 TYO +9 GMT
EUR/USD 1.1000 1.2bn euro 1.1060 1.1bn 1.1100 1.6bn 1.1120 776m 1.1125 1.3bn 1.1150 2.1bn 1.1200 3.4bn USD/JPY 109.50 554m USD 110.00
The strong trends have been weaker lately Welcome to January. The first month of the year is one where genuine seasonal factors come into play. The close of books for year-end followed by the start of a new year sends money sloshing around. In stock markets, the January effect is a poorly understood phenomenon. The
FX option expiries for Friday December 20 at the 10am NY cut
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LON SDNY+11 NY -5 TYO +9 GMT
EUR/USD 1.1020 610m EUR amounts listed 1.1025 696m 1.1130 725m 1.1140 532m 1.1145 624m 1.1150 2.7bn 1.1180 519m 1.1200 581m 1.1250 1.4bn
FX option expiries for Thursday December 19 at the 10am NY cut
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LON SDNY+11 NY -5 TYO +9 GMT
EUR/USD 1.1000 726m euro 1.1200 807m 1.1210 570m USD/JPY 108.20 674m 108.35 845m 108.40 448m 108.50 1.2bn 108.60 720m 110.00 1.0bn 110.75
FX option expiries for Monday December 16 at the 10am NY cut
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EUR/USD has some rather large expiries at the outer ends of the ranges below 1.1030 2.3bn euro amount 1.1035 536m 1.1058 651m
Forex futures positioning data for the week ended Tuesday, December 10: EUR short 68K vs 69K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K GBP short 23K vs 30K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 7K JPY short 44K vs 48K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4k CHF short 21K vs 22K short last week. Shorts trimmed
HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment;
FX option expiries for Wednesday November 27 at the 10am NY cut
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LON SDNY+11 NY -5 TYO +9 GMT
EUR/USD 1.0900 2.0bn euro 1.0995 863m 1.1000 1.1bn 1.1035 770m 1.1050 684m 1.1120 716m USD/JPY 108.00 1.5bn USD 108.10 603m 108.35 626m
Alongside key near-term technical levels, it could make for yet another narrow week of trading for EUR/USD Here is what’s on the options board for the time being: Monday, 25 November 1.1000 (€311m) 1.1025-35 (€606m) 1.1055-65 (€417m) 1.1085-90 (€963m) 1.1145-55 (€1.2bn) Tuesday, 26 November Wednesday, 27 November 1.0995-00 (€1.5bn) 1.1035-40 (€864m) 1.1050 (€556m) 1.1100-10 (€733m)
FX option expiries for Thursday November 21 at the 10am NY cut
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LON SDNY+11 NY -5 TYO +9 GMT
EUR/USD 1.0950 684m EUR 1.1000 1.2bn 1.1025 605m 1.1035 669m 1.1050 884m 1.1090 1.2bn USD/JPY 107.75 400m USD 108.00 851m 108.20 411m 108.30 994m
What are the seasonal trading trends in November I’m a bit late this month with the seasonal rundown but it’s been a sluggish start to the month so you probably haven’t missed anything. It’s a month with a few very-notable seasonal biases that you may want to keep in mind. I’ve got a few of
CFTC positioning shows bets on the dollar have dropped The Federal Reserves mid-cycle adjustment has chased out US dollar longs. The week ahead will be an interesting one because the CFTC data is from Tuesday’s close. That was before Powell had the chance to commit to keep rates here or lower for a long time:
What is the trend in October? October is a wishy-washy month for seasonals and it’s important to note than 2008 is falling out of the 10-year averages this year. it was a month that massively skewed some of the averages and we’re probably getting a cleaner look. That said, there are always big events that
How did the seasonal trends perform in September? Very well, especially if you look beyond the headlines. I highlighted four seasonally-driven ideas in a month that’s a tricky one for patterns. Three of them were winners and one was potentially phenomenal. Let’s break them down. 1) Late-year oil weakness It’s not quite what it appears.
Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC: EUR short 61K vs 69K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 8K GBP short 81K vs 86K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K JPY long 13K vs 24K long last week. Longs trimmed by 11K CHF short 11k vs 5k short last
Trading hits $6.6 billion per day Trading in the foreign exchange market has hit $6.6 trillion per day, according to the latest survey from the Bank of International Settlements. The BIS today reported today that volume in the survey month of April rose 29% compared to 2016. The comprehensive survey is conducted every three years.
HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment;
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